Week 4 Expert College Football Picks

Week 4 Expert College Football Picks

(Photo: Gregory Fisher, USA TODAY Sports)

With this being the fourth full week of the college football season, most teams are now in conference play. There were plenty of amazing finishes last week (see: Texas-USC, Florida-Tennessee) and shocking upsets (see: Mississippi State-LSU, San Diego State-Stanford), with this week promising more of the same.

Georgia’s game against Mississippi State is suddenly the best matchup of the week, with a pair of Big Ten contenders in Michigan and Penn State facing tough road tests against Purdue and Iowa. Notre Dame faces Michigan State in a game between underachieving teams from a year ago that are trying to get back on track this season.

Vanderbilt and Kentucky are facing the two teams who have squared off in each of the last two years’ SEC title games in Alabama and Florida, hoping to pull off significant upsets. Texas A&M and Arkansas square off in Arlington in a game that both teams seem to need. USC and Oregon are big home favorites while Stanford and UCLA face each other looking to bounce back from non-conference losses last week. Meanwhile, all four games involving Big 12 teams have the over/under at no lower than 63, including the 71.5 set for what should be a great game between TCU and Oklahoma State.

So here are this week’s picks for every FBS game this week, as made using the projections produced by the model that assigns every FBS team a rating and uses those ratings to project the outcome of any and every FBS game this season. Last week the model, after a solid Week 2 showing, regressed back to 22-27-2 (45.1%) against the spread and 56-11 (86.2%) straight up. It is 73-79-2 (48.1%) against the spread and 193-38 (83.5%) on the season.

Home Road Home spread Projected cover Projected winner
South Florida Temple -18 Temple South Florida
Arizona Utah +3.5 Utah Utah
Boise State Virginia -13 Boise State Boise State
Troy Akron -15.5 Troy Troy
Vanderbilt Alabama +18.5 Vanderbilt Alabama
North Texas Alabama-Birmingham -13 Alabama-Birmingham North Texas
Texas A&M Arkansas +2.5 Arkansas Arkansas
Southern Methodist Arkansas State -1 Southern Methodist Southern Methodist
Tulane Army -2.5 Tulane Tulane
Missouri Auburn +18 Missouri Auburn
Western Kentucky Ball State -7.5 Ball State Ball State
Clemson Boston College -34 Clemson Clemson
Middle Tennessee State Bowling Green State -7 Middle Tennessee State Middle Tennessee State
Maryland Central Florida -4 Central Florida Maryland
Navy Cincinnati -11.5 Navy Navy
North Carolina Duke +2 Duke Duke
Kentucky Florida +1.5 Florida Florida
Buffalo Florida Atlantic -3 Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic
Rice Florida International -2 Florida International Florida International
Indiana Georgia Southern -24 Georgia Southern Indiana
Charlotte Georgia State PK Georgia State Georgia State
Wyoming Hawaii -6 Hawaii Wyoming
South Alabama Idaho -3.5 Idaho Idaho
Louisville Kent State -44 Kent State Louisville
South Carolina Louisiana Tech -9.5 Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech
Louisiana-Lafayette Louisiana-Monroe -6.5 Louisiana-Lafayette Louisiana-Lafayette
Tennessee Massachusetts -28 Massachusetts Tennessee
Central Michigan Miami (OH) -1 Central Michigan Central Michigan
Purdue Michigan +10.5 Michigan Michigan
Georgia Mississippi State -4.5 Mississippi State Mississippi State
Washington State Nevada -28 Nevada Washington State
Ohio State Nevada-Las Vegas -40 Nevada-Las Vegas Ohio State
Tulsa New Mexico -10.5 Tulsa Tulsa
Florida State North Carolina State -12.5 North Carolina State Florida State
Michigan State Notre Dame +3.5 Michigan State Michigan State
Eastern Michigan Ohio -2.5 Ohio Eastern Michigan
Baylor Oklahoma +28.5 Baylor Oklahoma
Virginia Tech Old Dominion -28 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech
Arizona State Oregon +14.5 Arizona State Arizona State
Iowa Penn State +12.5 Iowa Penn State
Georgia Tech Pittsburgh -9 Georgia Tech Georgia Tech
Nebraska Rutgers -12.5 Rutgers Nebraska
Air Force San Diego State +3.5 Air Force San Diego State
California Southern California +17 Southern California Southern California
Memphis Southern Illinois

Louisiana State Syracuse -21 Syracuse Louisiana State
Oklahoma State Texas Christian -13 Oklahoma State Oklahoma State
Houston Texas Tech -6 Texas Tech Texas Tech
New Mexico State Texas-El Paso -20 New Mexico State New Mexico State
Texas State Texas-San Antonio +13.5 Texas State Texas-San Antonio
Miami (FL) Toledo -13.5 Toledo Toledo
Stanford UCLA -7.5 Stanford Stanford
San Jose State Utah State PK San Jose State San Jose State
Western Michigan Wagner

Western Michigan
Appalachian State Wake Forest +5 Wake Forest Wake Forest
Colorado Washington +11.5 Colorado Washington
Kansas West Virginia +21 Kansas West Virginia
Coastal Carolina Western Illinois

Western Illinois
Connecticut East Carolina -4.5 East Carolina East Carolina

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